RENTAL MONKEYS
If you're trying to out-think someone that isn't thinking, you'll lose

Friday, May 13, 2005

Hello again

Well, it's been a while since I've posted here. Lots to say I suppose, so here we go

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Well, we'll be cancelling our movie channels since HBO has decided to cancel Carnivale. Carnivale was the best non-reality show on TV by a freaking mile, but sadly it wasn't the most popular show out there. So, instead of getting to watch the brilliance of a 3rd season, we're all left in an eternal lurch. The 2nd season ended in such a way it was obvious the writer didn't know if the show would be returning, so it's not a completely "lost" feeling, but it's still frustrating nonetheless. Bah.

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The girls have been playing well so far this year. We've only lost 2 games so far, which is good, and they have been steadily improving. I think our chances are pretty good, and hopefully when all is said and done, their skills will have improved and they will have had lots of fun.

I'm enjoying coaching this year, but not quite as much as last year. There's more "politics" involved in girl's softball, since there are scolarship possibilities down the road, etc., etc., and it's the "big" summer sport for girls. So, even though these girls are 7-10 years old, some of the parents take it very seriously, and put much more pressure on the coaches, and have high high expectations for the team and their kid.

So far, I've had to deal with 3 girls who are in tears because they did something "wrong" (bad throw, strikeout, bad pitching, etc). Now I know I'm not putting this pressure on them - so why do they feel so upset? They aren't old enough (I don't think) to be putting this kind of pressure on themselves... so I can only figure they are upset because they feel they're letting Dad/Mom/etc. down.

It's unfortunate. What's worse is I can't do anything about it.

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Well, the minority government lasted less time than I thought it would, and now we get to spend $200 million on an election which will look startingly like the last one, and will have the same results, another minority government, albeit a Conservative one (ugh) rather than a Liberal one.

I guess what baffles me the most is that the Conservatives and NDP are incapable of playing the political game well enough that they are unable to destroy a party which has been essentially convicted of stealing and embezzling tax money. The Liberals, I predict, will still get a very decent number of seats (around 80).

I mean, really, it's absolutely bizarre.

Anyway, here's my early-early-early prediction:

The Liberals are caught stealing from taxpayers and embezzling it back into the party. The "cover" for this is a sponsorship program aimed at defeating the separatists by fostering patriotism in the province of Quebec.

The fact that this program was used to steal from taxpayers has upset the people of Quebec greatly, so the Liberals have been decimated in Quebec and separatism is back on the rise (this is perhaps the most ironic effect of this whole situation). So, in the next election, most of Quebec's 75 seats will go Bloc - I think possibly as high as 70. This isn't necessarily a result of the vast majority of Quebec going separatist, but the Bloc I think is viewed as a good alternative to the Liberals, despite their separatist leanings. Obviously, the Conservatives and the other parties don't get any traction in Quebec.

The Prairies' 56 seats (Alberta's 28, Sask & Man's 14 each) will go almost entirely Conservative. Obviously, as if Alberta and Saskatchewan needed more reason to hate the Liberals - and Manitoba which is typically half and half will be pushed over the "brink", so to speak - the sponsorship scandal will be the death Knell in these provinces for the Liberals. The NDP will probably pick up a couple of seats in Manitoba.

Ontario will go mostly Liberal again - despite the scandals, they are too centrist to vote anything but. They are scared of the Harper Conservatives, and the NDP are too left-wing and too tax-happy, so they will "settle" for the Liberals. However, this is where the Liberals will lose their "minority rule" - they will lose seats in the Rural areas which will hurt them a lot. At least half of Ontario's 106 seats will go red, with the rest being split between the NDP and Conservatives - but I'd say that would be absolutely nothing more than 50 seats non-Liberal.

The Maritimes will probably go half and half Liberal / Conservative.

The interesting province to watch will be BC - I don't see the Liberals getting any seats there (they got 8 last time) - I'll be curious to see if they go more NDP or more Conservative. BC is a strange place. But my suspicion is that the NDP will gain the Liberal seats while the Conservatives will stay the same.

So, as you can tell, it will be even MORE of a minority government this time. I figure something along these lines:



















Conservatives

123

Liberals

84

Bloc

70

NDP

30


The NDP will gain big thanks the the Liberals, the Liberals will still survive (inexplicably - you'd think that such a scandal-plagued party would get about 10 seats at most, but it just goes to show the inept weakness of the NDP and how scary the Conservatives are), and we'll have to suffer with Prime Minister Harper for ... oh ... I give that Parliament about ... 6 months. Before we get to do it all over again.

I fear for this country's reputation. Nothing meaningful is going to get done for a long, long time.

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Anyway, that's about it ... we're going to the cabin next week for 4 days, which will be great. There's some forestry roads I've been dying to hit, especially since I got the new camera.

Cheers for now...

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